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So is the hype justified this time? The Guardian spoke to Caplan about what the future of AI might look like and how he became an avid bettor.
The conversation has been edited and condensed for clarity.
So what do you think this means for the future of AI? Should we be excited or worried or both?
I would say excited, overall. All progress is bad for somebody. Vaccines are bad for funeral homes. The general rule is that anything that increases human production is good for human living standards. Some people lose, but if you were to go and say we only want progress that benefits everyone, then there could be no progress.
How could we theoretically be wiped out?
What goes into your thinking when you decide: is this worth a wager?
In other words, you tend to reject the most dramatic possible outcomes.
So if you do lose the AI bet, is that an indicator that the hyperbole is justified?
And what happens next?
There is a general rule that even when a technology seems awesome, it usually takes a lot longer to have big economic effects than you would expect.
The first phones were in 1870; it takes about 80 years before this technology is even giving us reliable phone calls to Europe. Electricity seemed like it took several decades for widespread adoption, and the internet also seemed like it took longer than it should.
